FIRE Calculator

The calculator uses the same return for every year. Real markets go up in some years and down in others, and the order matters. Two people can earn the same average return and end very differently.

If the bad years come right after you stop working, you sell investments while prices are low to pay your bills, and the money you sold never recovers. If the same bad years come later, most of the growth has already happened. This is called the order of returns (or sequence of returns), and no single number can protect you from it.

A lower return in the calculator shows how sensitive your number is to that guess, but it is not a crash test: it still assumes the same return every year. Many people keep a margin anyway, for example a later “last until” age or a plan to spend less in a bad year. Once you have the money, the Savings Withdrawal Calculator shows your withdrawals year by year, with the same steady-return assumption.

The 4% rule says you can take out 4% of your savings in the first year, then the same amount each year adjusted for rising prices, and in US market history the money lasted at least 30 years. It comes from a 1994 study by financial planner William Bengen.

Two things matter if you stop early. The rule was tested on 30 years, and stopping at 45 can mean 45 or 50 years. And it leaves out tax and fund fees. For 2026, Morningstar’s research puts the starting rate at 3.9% for a 30-year retirement, with a 90% chance of success under its own assumptions. That is a research estimate, not a guarantee.

That is why this calculator doesn’t use 4% as its answer. It works out what your spending needs until the age you choose. For $4,000 a month, the 4% rule says $1.2 million ($48,000 a year times 25). The calculator, with 45 years and 15% tax on profit, says about $1.5 million. Planning for your own number of years is not a safety test: like the 4% rule, it says nothing about the odds of a bad market. If you still prefer the 4% way, choose “A fixed percentage of my savings”.

In the US, most people become eligible for Medicare at 65. Stopping work earlier usually means buying health insurance yourself, often on the ACA marketplace (HealthCare.gov). That cost belongs in your monthly spending, and it is easy to leave out, because until now an employer paid most of it.

As of 2026, the extra federal help that lowered marketplace premiums from 2021 to 2025 has ended, and many people now pay more (KFF). Prices and rules change every year, so check the current figures for your state and income. (Checked October 2026.)

Money in a 401(k) or a traditional IRA usually carries an extra 10% tax if you take it out before age 59½, on top of regular income tax. There are exceptions, and the IRS lists them for workplace plans like a 401(k) and for IRAs. A Roth IRA has its own rules: the money you put in can generally come out first, while the growth follows stricter rules.

So the question is not only “do I have enough?” but also “can I reach it when I need it?” Many people who stop early plan to live on regular investment accounts first. This calculator counts all your savings the same way, so check which part of your money you can reach, and from when.

Your Social Security benefit is based on your 35 highest-earning years. If you have fewer than 35 years of earnings, the missing years count as zero (Social Security Administration). Stopping at 45 can leave you short of 35 years, so your benefit can come out lower than an estimate that assumes you keep working.

Your personal estimate is in your my Social Security account. If you expect a pension or Social Security later, enter it under “A pension you’ll get later”. The calculator then needs less from your savings once it starts.

These are names people use for versions of the same goal. None of them has an official definition.

Lean FIRE means stopping work on a small budget. Fat FIRE means stopping on a large one, with more room to spend. Coast FIRE means you have already saved enough that, left alone to grow, it will reach your number by a later age, so from now on you only need to earn enough to cover today’s costs. Barista FIRE means leaving your main job for part-time or lighter work: the pay covers part of your spending, and your savings cover the rest.

The calculator’s third question, “Can I work less now?”, is the Barista FIRE question in plain words.

Run all three questions with your own numbers. Then move “Plan for your money to last until age” from 95 to 90 and to 100, and try a return 1 point lower. If the answer only works with the most hopeful settings, that is worth knowing now, not later.

Once you have the money and want to see it year by year, the Savings Withdrawal Calculator does that. Still building your savings with a monthly amount? The Compound Interest Calculator shows how it grows.

It can’t know what markets will do, so it uses one return for every year and can’t give you the odds of a crash. It doesn’t know your tax rules, which depend on the kind of account and where you live. It doesn’t know your health costs or your Social Security amount.

Outside the US, the math is the same, but account rules, pensions and health systems are different. And it can’t tell you whether to quit. It shows what your numbers say; the decision stays with you.